Sawlog consumption and trade patterns must shift as US industry rebounds from depressed levels and China's long-term demand outstrips domestic supplies
As the North American lumber and panel sectors recover from a six-year depression, RISI economists foresee a significant increase in wood costs. Additionally, China's economic performance is expected to necessitate record demand for solid wood products. This will likely push log prices higher and result in new trade patterns for international markets that are already out of equilibrium. These findings and others were published in RISI's newly released 2014 World Sawlog Study.
"We're already seeing a huge increase in sawlog demand within China," said Peter Barynin, Author and Principal Timber Economist at RISI. "We expect softwood demand to outpace supply in China, North America and Western Europe. The situation for hardwoods appears even more challenging."
"Competitiveness between international supplying regions has radically shifted over the last ten years," continued Barynin. "This is about to happen once again. The world certainly is not running out of wood. Rather, the challenge will be for markets to resolve dislocations between where the wood is and where the future markets for forest products will be."
2014 World Sawlog Study explores the impact of accelerated global consumption and provides a detailed analysis by end-use market by country for the next ten years.
2014 World Sawlog Study includes:
10-year sawlog price forecasts for all major producing regions
10-year product demand forecasts for all major solid wood product markets by country
Analysis of wood consumption by end-use markets
Forecast of trade for processed and unprocessed wood products
Country-level and forest resource supply assessment
Strategic region harvest demand profiles for US, Canada, China, Japan, India, Russia, New Zealand, Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Sweden, Finland, Germany, France, Eastern Europe, Brazil, Chile and Argentina
