The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), decreased 1.2 percent in November. The index now stands at 119.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in October and a 0.4 percent decline in September. None of the eight components contributed positively to the index in November.
"The growth of Leading Economic Index for Brazil in November was once again negative, reflecting increased economic uncertainties brought on by policy adjustments as well as unfavorable economic data," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "The recently announced fiscal tightening for next year, although necessary, will likely keep economic growth restrained in the near term."
"Although the large decline in the TCB/FGV LEI for Brazil was broad based, consumer expectations made the largest negative contribution to the index this month," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "The persistent weakness in the index reflects the challenges facing the Brazilian economy both domestically and internationally. "
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, was unchanged in November at 127.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in October and a 0.1 percent decline in September. Two of the six components contributed positively to the index in November.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.