The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), fell 1.4 percent in September. The index now stands at 86.2 (2010 = 100), following a 1.8 percent decline in August and a 0.6 percent decline in July. The consumers survey: expectations index, the services sector survey: expectations index, the swap rate (inverted), the manufacturing survey's expectations index, stock prices, and the consumer durable goods production index all contributed negatively to the index in September.
"The sharp declines in the Brazil LEI continued through September, suggesting the ongoing recession is unlikely to ease in the foreseeable future," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "With domestic consumption on a downward trend, foreign demand lacking momentum, and persisting uncertainties surrounding the fiscal adjustment, Brazil's economic recovery is facing considerable obstacles."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent to 101.7 (2010 = 100) in September, following a 0.7 percent decline in August and a 0.3 percent decline in July. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in September.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.