The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), increased 0.8 percent in July. The index now stands at 120.3 (2004 = 100), following a 1.7 percent decline in June and a 1.7 percent decline in May. Five of the eight components contributed positively to the index in July.
Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE says, "The July gains in both the LEI and CEI are noteworthy given six months of consecutive declines, however it's still too early to suggest a pickup in economic activity. July's improvement was accompanied by decelerating prices which in turn helped improve expectations concerning future monetary policy, and consumers and service sector expectations also improved."
Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board adds, "July's increase in the LEI for Brazil was mainly driven by improvements in exports, the service sector, and stock prices. Nevertheless, domestic demand remains sluggish and manufacturing indicators have been declining persistently. Despite July's improvement, the growth in the LEI continues to suggest that the Brazilian economy is unlikely to gain much traction in the coming months."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.6 percent in July at 127.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decline in June and a 0.5 percent decline in May. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in July.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
