The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 1.3 percent in September to 123.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in August, and a 0.1 percent decline in July.
At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in September to 125.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.
The LEI for Mexico has been falling for three consecutive months through September, mainly driven by weaker oil prices and higher levels of inventories. Its six-month growth rate remains slightly better than in the first half of the year, but the rate of acceleration has moderated during the third quarter. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico continues its upward trend through September, and its six-month growth rate has also picked up. Despite the strength in the CEI, the recent slowing in the rate of growth in the LEI suggests that the economic expansion should continue into early 2015, but an acceleration in the pace of growth is unlikely.
