The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India increased 1.2 percent in November to 184.5 (2004 = 100), following a 1.0 percent decline in October and a 1.7 percent increase in September. Seven of the eight components contributed positively to the index in November.
"Despite the broad-based strength in November's Leading Economic Index for India, a moderation in its six-month growth suggests that the current rate of economic expansion is unlikely to accelerate considerably in early 2015," said Jing Sima, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "A sharp decline in industrial production reflects India's persistently weak manufacturing sector. In addition, economic momentum post-election is still facing restrained fiscal conditions and vulnerable domestic demand."
Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, added: "Medium-term growth prospects in India remain fairly favorable, but are likely to fall short of popular expectations in the near term. Drastic reforms in labor markets, taxes and foreign domestic investment are still on the horizon. For 2015, the economy will likely grow at 5.5 percent, slightly faster than in 2014."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 4.4 percent in November to 203.1 (2004 = 100), following a 5.7 percent decline in October and a 2.4 percent increase in September. Three of the four components contributed positively to the index in November.
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
